![]() ![]() I find it noteworthy that ADSK has reiterated its 4Q23 midterm outlook of 10-15% revenue growth and 30-35% FCF margins (more below). In addition to discussing the company's three industry clouds and how they will connect data, teams, and workflows, management also reaffirmed their F24 guidance and discussed key long-term growth opportunities/drivers. However, I believe the presentation contributed to the development of the business and stock's longer-term narrative. The market seems to agree with me, as the stock price dropped by more than 4% on 22nd March following the company's Investor Day. This is because I anticipate that reinvestments will hinder margin growth over the next two years, and there may be a potential risk to the company's top-line in F24 due to exposure to cyclical end-markets. Following the recent Investor Day, my conviction has increased that there will be some short-term difficulties ahead. My thesis so far was that Autodesk ( NASDAQ: ADSK) is a great business, large TAM, and is an interesting investment opportunity, but the short-term risk are unavoidable. LPETTET/E+ via Getty Images Thesis update
0 Comments
Leave a Reply. |